Table of Contents:
00:00 - Operations ManagementForecasting
00:03 - Objectives
00:09 - Outline
00:24 - What is Forecasting?
01:03 - Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney
01:28 - Forecasting Provides a Competitive Advantage for Disney
02:21 - Question – Importance?
03:17 - Forecasting Time Horizons
04:23 - Strategic Importance of Forecasting
05:51 - The Realities!
06:26 - Forecasting Approaches
06:52 - Forecasting Approaches
07:04 - Overview of Qualitative Methods
07:39 - Overview of Qualitative Methods
08:25 - Jury of Executive Opinion
09:18 - Delphi Method
09:46 - Sales Force Composite
09:59 - Market Survey
10:52 - Forecasting Variation Components
11:05 - Trend Component
11:23 - Seasonal Component
12:10 - Cyclical Component
12:29 - Random Component
12:46 - Overview of Quantitative Approaches
13:16 - Naive Approach
13:39 - Moving Average Method
14:03 - Moving Average Example
15:17 - Weighted Moving Average
15:40 - Weighted Moving Average
16:59 - Weighted Moving Average
17:00 - Potential Problems With Moving Average
17:51 - Exponential Smoothing
18:21 - Exponential Smoothing
19:14 - Exponential Smoothing Example
19:20 - Exponential Smoothing Example
19:51 - Exponential Smoothing Example
19:58 - Effect of Smoothing Constants
20:14 - Impact of Different
20:45 - Effect of Smoothing Constants
20:46 - Exponential Smoothing Example
22:47 - Common Measures of Error
23:27 - Determining the MAD
24:17 - Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts
24:53 - Determining the MAD
25:31 - Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts
26:34 - Associative Forecasting
26:43 - Associative Forecasting
27:29 - Associative Forecasting Example
27:58 - Multiple-Regression Analysis
28:15 - Multiple-Regression Analysis
28:25 - Acknowledgements