Bill Benter is arguably the most successful sports bettor of all time. Its estimated he made close to $1 Billion betting on horses in Hong Kong. His story is well documented, but the models he used and the reasons for his success are often overlooked. In this video I break down the circumstances that made his his model profitable and the specifics of the exact machine learning model that he used. At the end I also analyze the feasibility of creating another model like this in 2022.
0:00 Intro
0:41 Who is Bill Benter?
1:22 Lesson 1: The Law of Large Numbers
2:30 Blackjack to Horse Racing
2:50 Bankroll Management
4:07 How did His Billon Dollar Model Work?
4:57 Secret Sauce
6:00 Improving the Billon Dollar Model
6:35 $$$$$$
7:12 The $10 Million Dollar Ticket
8:05 Could you replicate this?
National Problem Gambling Hotline: 1-800-522-4700
Articles Referenced:
- https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1994-benter.pdf
- https://www.tepinvestments.com/blog/beating-the-risk-of-ruin-mr-bill-benter-horse-racing-and-the-kelly-criterion
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B0mGYZqElo&ab_channel=BloombergQuicktake
- https://www.wired.com/2002/03/betting/
- https://www.wired.com/2002/03/betting/
- https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2021/01/02/5ff0d37446163fb99b8b458c.html
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
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