WEBFISHING is now legally called WEBGAMBLING. It's no longer a fishing game. It's a gambling game. Let's discuss the implications of that.
Ticket Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g970jDh_jebxRafnOofDV3dc3c9CS1mI0WEO6Tw8x8A/edit?usp=sharing
WEBFISHING on Steam: https://store.steampowered.com/app/3146520/WEBFISHING/
0:00 Intro
0:47 Scratcher Math
2:19 Tickets 1-1000
9:52 Tickets 1001-2000
11:43 Tickets 2001-3000
15:48 Tickets 3001-4000
19:22 Final Results
23:37 Follow on Twitch!
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Here's the formulas that determine the odds of a ticket number featuring a prize amount of each respective tier:
Tier 1: 0.3
Tier 2: 0.7 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^1)
Tier 3: 0.7^2 x 0.75^1 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^2)
Tier 4: 0.7^3 x 0.75^3 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^3)
Tier 5: 0.7^4 x 0.75^6 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^4)
Tier 6: 0.7^5 x 0.75^10 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^5)
Tier 7: 0.7^6 x 0.75^15 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^6)
Tier 8: 0.7^7 x 0.75^21 x (1−0.7 x 0.75^7)
Tier 9: 0.7^8 x 0.75^28
Tier 1 is self explanatory. Tier 2 takes the 70% odds of rolling past Tier 1 and multiplies then by (1−0.7 x 0.75^1).
(1−0.7 x 0.75^1) represents the odds of failing to roll past Tier 2, and stopping there. The result is 0.475 or 47.5% chance of failing to roll past.
Tier 3 to Tier 8's calculation works as such: (0.7^X x 0.75^Y) x (1−0.7 x 0.75^Z).
X Represents the number of successful rolls needed to reach the current tier.
Y Represents the total number of reductions applied up to the current tier. So Tier 8 for example 6+5+4+3+2+1 = 21
Z Represents the number of reductions in success chance at the current tier.
For tier 9, there's obviously no need to account for rolling past that tier.
I attempted to do the math on my own rather than just piggy-backing off of the wiki's math and I'm glad to find that my results turned up mostly the same. There’s a small discrepancy between their stated chance of a Jackpot appearing (0.0001%) and my calculation (0.00018%). I suspect this might be due to a rounding error. However, this difference significantly impacts the odds of a Jackpot, increasing from 1/10,000 to 9/50,000 per number.
Peer reviewed by a friend with a math degree. Let me know if you have questions, or if this doesn't make any sense at all. It's 1:58AM and I am ready for bed.
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Unedited Video (Part 1 of 5): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UAgFdiwqrU
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#webfishing #cozygaming #gaming