What makes this even harder to accept is that this shift in probabilities isn’t immediately visible. Monty’s reveal doesn’t feel like it should affect the odds because he isn’t adding or removing a car or a door—he’s just showing us something we didn’t know. Yet, this act of revealing a goat redistributes the probabilities, concentrating the chances of the car being behind the unchosen door. This subtle shift is deeply unintuitive because it’s not how we naturally process randomness or fairness. We want to believe the remaining options are equal because that’s what seems simple and fair.
Thank you for watching this video, let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Timestamps
0:00 Introduction
0:56 The Paradox
4:17 100 doors, 99 goats
8:07 Exhaustive search
9:37 Your Choice Vs Everything Else
11:37 Bayesian Reasoning
14:51 Why Some People Will Never Understand