Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/paul-krugman-on-how-to-think-about-trade-imbalances/
Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy/signup/
On Thursday, January 30, Paul Krugman joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Paul Krugman is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and the 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.
A summary in three bullets
- A new view of trade imbalances, exemplified by Pettis and Hogan (2024), has gained traction in policy circles and think tanks, arguing that these imbalances are a distortion due to government-actions, hurt deficit countries, and should be addressed with tariffs
- There are several problems with this new view. Trade need not be imbalanced if some countries can attract investment better than others. It is also not clear that imbalances lead to deindustrialization, nor that a large manufacturing sector should be a policy objective
- Tariffs are never the solution. We know two things about tariffs: (1) they lead to retaliation and (2) will strengthen the dollar, hurting the U.S.’s exports
Timestamps:
[00:00] Markus’ introduction
[06:17] Addressing a new view about trade imbalances
[34:02] Is deindustrialization a problem?
[43:02] Is there a case for tariffs?
[51:15] Q&A