Hi, my name is Mark, and I am a Monetary economist. Here, I give you four ways Russia is going down. Russia’s economy has multiple possible paths leading to serious decline. In this video, we analyze four scenarios for Russia's economic collapse, each supported by established economic theories. While the precise trajectory is uncertain, the most likely outcome in 2025—assuming no sanctions relief from Washington—is a deep recession starting mid-year.
Scenario 1: Slow Deterioration (Keynesian Theory)
Consumers hoard money instead of spending, creating a liquidity trap. Negative multiplier effects and collapsing animal spirits drag the economy into stagnation.
Scenario 2: Deep Recession (Stockholm School)
Real economic factors and declining productivity cause a prolonged contraction, severely restricting growth.
Scenario 3: Financial Crisis (Austrian Business Cycle Theory)
The natural rate of interest and central bank policy become misaligned, leading to monetary disequilibrium, triggering a banking crisis, and spreading into the real economy.
Scenario 4: Hyperinflation & Systemic Collapse (Quantity Theory of Money – Milton Friedman)
Excessive money printing fuels inflationary expectations, pushing the economy into hyperinflation, total currency collapse, and a deep depression.
Russia faces a challenging economic future with supply-side constraints, a fiscal crisis, and continued Western sanctions. Watch the complete analysis to understand which scenario is unfolding and why a deep recession is the most probable outcome for 2025.
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#russia #economy #sanctionsrelief #geopolitics #hyperinflation #recession #ukraine