The real reason Donald Trump is targeting South Africa: BRICS, G20, Musk, Ramaphosa, Iran, AGOA
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In today’s episode, Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh unpacks the underlying causes of the tensions between the US and South Africa.
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Credits:
Director and DOP: Nomaan Haarzavi for Narr8 Studio
Second Camera Operator: Faizan Haq for Narr8 Studio
Producer: Oratile Kekana
00:00 - Introduction: Trump's attack on South Africa
00:07 - Key questions: Is the US serious? What damage can be done?
00:19 - Welcome to SMWX: South African politics & analysis
00:32 - The false narrative about South Africa
00:52 - Satirical take: "Very bad things happening in SA?"
00:59 - The serious ramifications of US claims
01:16 - Taking a calm, analytical approach
01:28 - Why this moment matters for SA's foreign relations
01:53 - Three key areas of analysis
01:58 - Overview of US-SA relations & the executive order
02:30 - What are the real implications for South Africa?
03:13 - The Middle Road: Not total defiance, not total surrender
03:19 - Understanding the global order shift
04:08 - What has happened since the last SA-US analysis?
04:15 - Breaking down Trump's executive order
04:43 - US falsely claims Afrikaners are being targeted
05:49 - The real reason for US concerns: SA's foreign policy
06:28 - The Israel-Palestine and Iran connection
07:03 - US concern over SA's domestic policies
08:49 - The broader implications of the executive order
08:56 - South African reactions: Widespread rejection
09:17 - Afriforum & Solidarity: Backtracking their claims
10:01 - Afriforum's public statements on US actions
12:15 - European reactions: EU distances itself from the US
13:03 - The UK & EU take a different approach
13:20 - Failed pro-Trump protests in South Africa
14:12 - Even Afrikaner commentators reject the US stance
15:08 - The international influence of SA's far-right groups
15:15 - What should SA’s response be?
16:00 - Two extreme views & the need for balance
17:02 - What are the real US threats to South Africa?
17:23 - US withdrawing aid: Symbolic more than substantial
19:07 - The potential for further US action
19:12 - Could SA face economic sanctions?
21:03 - SA’s foreign policy: Unchanged stance on key issues
22:10 - Expropriation Act: The US narrative vs reality
23:04 - The actual policy options the US has against SA
23:36 - Would the US impose sanctions on South Africa?
24:57 - Why 1985 sanctions don’t apply to today’s SA
25:30 - The distinction between specific and general sanctions
26:14 - Possible targeted sanctions on SA politicians
27:03 - Would general sanctions happen? Highly unlikely
28:56 - AGOA & the impact of trade restrictions
30:03 - Understanding AGOA & SA's US trade relationship
31:18 - If SA is removed from AGOA, what happens?
32:49 - The South African auto sector's vulnerability
34:12 - Why SA can’t afford more economic instability
35:07 - The role of mineral exports in SA’s economy
36:30 - Trade won’t end, but it may shift
37:36 - Could SA diversify trade to counterbalance the US?
38:49 - China, India & alternative trade partners
40:07 - The risks for the US in alienating South Africa
41:34 - South Africa’s role as a BRICS member
42:44 - SA’s diplomatic influence and geopolitical value
44:06 - Why coercing SA would cost the US too much
46:57 - The long-term shift in global trade
48:02 - The shifting world order & SA’s strategic role
50:35 - How South Africa fits into global power shifts
51:22 - The US, China & the BRICS challenge
54:42 - US-Europe tensions & Ukraine policy shifts
56:16 - South Africa’s foreign policy consistency
58:05 - What does this mean for South Africa’s future?
59:42 - US global strategy & SA’s geopolitical importance
1:00:56 - Closing thoughts: Negotiating SA’s future
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