Suburban office parks are a ticking time bomb. Despite millennials doing everything to wipe them out, the suburban office park has endured thanks in part to leases signed before 2020. But once those deals expire, a potential economic disaster awaits, impacting pensions, retirement funds, and communities dependent on commercial property tax revenue. This is the rise and fall of the beloved (hated) suburban office park.
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Further reading:
Pastoral Capitalism by Louise A. Mozingo: https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262526142/pastoral-capitalism/
Brookings Institution:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/lang.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-decline-of-the-underclass/
The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704058704576015660618563654
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/office-tenants-are-renewing-leasesbut-for-far-less-space-b27d5b7e?mod=article_inline
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/even-a-booming-economy-cant-save-atlantas-office-market-1246e446
The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/19/business/suburban-office-park-comeback.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/29/nyregion/new-jersey-office-parks.html
Business Insider:
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-forcing-end-suburban-office-parks-2017-2
https://www.businessinsider.com/pension-funds-feeling-pain-commercial-real-estate-woes-2023-4
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-05/a-new-report-sheds-light-on-the-sad-state-of-suburban-office-parks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/office-owners-get-dire-warning-rebound-unlikely-before-2040
The Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/decline-office-park/422811/
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/commercial-real-estate-crisis-empty-offices/674310/
The Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-old-suburban-office-park-is-the-new-american-ghost-town/2015/07/20/b8e7653a-1f6e-11e5-bf41-c23f5d3face1_story.html
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1131/2003-U.S.%20Urban%20Decline%20and%20Growth,%201950%20to%202000.pdf
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/working_papers/1994/pdf/wp94-6.pdf
NJ.com: https://www.nj.com/news/2014/06/diamonds_to_dinosaurs_nj_towns_struggle_under_weight_of_massive_office_park_vacancies.html
The Centre for Economic Policy Research: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/work-home-and-office-real-estate-apocalypse
MinnPost: https://www.minnpost.com/cityscape/2023/04/the-real-victims-of-the-oncoming-office-space-glut-might-be-suburbs-like-eagan/