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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – MONDAY, MAY 5, 2025 (16:30Z Update)
SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Tuesday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (681K people): Midland, TX, Odessa, TX, San Angelo, TX, Del Rio, TX, Hobbs, NM
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (30.2M people): San Antonio, TX, Austin, TX, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, Pittsburgh, PA
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (27.2M people): Houston, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Baltimore, MD, Cleveland, OH, Virginia Beach, VA
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Midland, TX, Odessa, TX, San Angelo, TX, Del Rio, TX, Hobbs, NM
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: San Antonio, TX, Austin, TX, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, Pittsburgh, PA
What the Percentages Mean
A 5% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 20 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the zone. That risk is notable—especially in west TX and southeast NM, where evening supercells may become tornadic.
The 2% zone covers a wide area, signaling a low but non-negligible tornado threat in supportive setups.
📝 Overview
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the southern High Plains, particularly southeast NM into western and central TX.
Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible—especially late this afternoon into the evening.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🧊 Very large hail (up to 2–3") with isolated supercells
🌪️ A couple tornadoes possible (especially from late afternoon through evening)
💨 Damaging wind gusts, particularly with any evening clusters
🕓 Timeline
🕐 Early Afternoon: Elevated storms ongoing in parts of TX with isolated hail potential
🕓 3–6 PM CDT: Surface-based storms begin firing along the dryline in southeast NM and west TX
🌆 6–9 PM CDT: Peak tornado and large hail threat across the Permian Basin
🌒 9 PM–1 AM CDT: Possible cluster/line development; wind and hail remain threats into central TX
📌 Regional Notes
🟤 Permian Basin (Midland/Odessa/Del Rio): Best setup for supercells with hail and tornado potential
🟡 Eastern FL / Mid-Atlantic: Scattered thunderstorms may bring hail or gusty winds, especially near sea breeze/front boundaries
🟢 Western Dakotas: A few strong storms may form along a boundary—isolated hail and wind possible
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you're in west TX or southeast NM, conditions are favorable for dangerous supercells later today.
Charge devices, enable weather alerts, and be prepared to act quickly if a tornado warning is issued.
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