Atlantic hurricane forecast 2025, NOAA outlook, ENSO neutral, record-warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and weak Saharan Air Layer (SAL) all point to a potentially explosive hurricane season.
In this breakdown, we’ll compare the 2025 hurricane season setup to historic analog years like 2017, 1999, and 2008 — the same patterns that produced Harvey, Irma, Maria, Floyd, Ike, and Irene. With Colorado State predicting 17 named storms and NOAA calling for above-average activity, forecasters are raising serious concerns.
If you’re searching for the official 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast, want to know what El Niño/La Niña means for hurricane season, or are tracking the Cape Verde storm risk for the U.S. coast, this is for you!
If you lived through Harvey’s flooding, Irma’s Category 5 winds, or Maria’s blackout in Puerto Rico—this is your warning. 2025 could deliver that same deadly trifecta. In this video, I break it all down using analog years like 1999, 2008, 2011, and especially 2017—because the data doesn’t lie.
🔥 What You’ll Learn:
Why neutral ENSO years are the most dangerous
How SSTs over 84°F fuel Category 5 hurricanes
What makes a weak SAL so risky for the U.S. coast
How the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) flips calm into chaos
What history tells us about what might happen next
⚠️ Critical for anyone in Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, or the Northeast.
Colorado State is calling for 17 named storms, NOAA gives it a 60% chance of being above average.
The question isn’t if—it’s which names we’ll remember.
💬 COMMENT: What hurricane season hit your area hardest? Share your story below!
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00:00 Intro: 2025 - A Remix of the Worst Hurricane Seasons?
01:04 Chapter 1 – Ghost Seasons: Echoes of Past Storms
02:55 Chapter 2 – ENSO outlook for 2025
03:32 Chapter 3 – 2017’s Terrible Trio: Harvey, Irma & Maria Revisited
07:48 Chapter 4 – Why Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Matter
09:40 Chapter 5 – Northeast Targeted: Lessons from Floyd & Irene
10:48 Chapter 6 – The Dust Shield: Saharan Air Layer Explained
11:37 Chapter 7 – Return of Cape Verde Hurricanes?
12:15 Chapter 8 – Storm Spark: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
13:24 Chapter 9 – Forecast Flop: When Predictions Go Awry (e.g., 2006)
14:37 Chapter 10 – Official 2025 Hurricane Forecast (CSU & NOAA Outlook)
16:32 Chapter 11 – Next Nightmare? What Names Will We Remember?
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