This week on Prof G Markets, Scott and Ed discuss Trump’s move to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, the administration’s decision to enlist Palantir to streamline federal data sharing, and Meta’s plan to launch AI-powered ad creation tools. Then, Robert Armstrong, U.S. financial commentator for the Financial Times, returns to the show to share how he coined the term “TACO trade,” what he makes of its viral moment, and the potential ripple effects it could have. He also highlights an overlooked element of the “big beautiful bill” and discusses whether we can grow our way out of the deficit.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Today's number
00:19 - Today's episode
03:01 - Headlines
03:53 - Steel & Aluminum Tariffs
09:36 - Trump Taps Palantir
14:06 - Meta's AI Ad Automation
20:15 - Ad break
23:35 - Why the TACO Trade Matters — ft. Robert Armstrong
23:54 - What’s your take on this clip of Trump reacting to the TACO trade?
27:35 - Do you think this could incentivize Trump to be more aggressive on tariffs to prove that he doesn’t chicken out?
29:26 - Is Trump delta shrinking?
35:33 - Do you think they are purposely creating market volatility so they can trade against it?
40:04 - Is Trump ramping up tariffs on Truth Social because he is bored?
41:51 - Ad break
45:22 - What’s your view on this new tax bill from the GOP?
47:43 - Is your read of the market’s reaction to the tax bill: “we’re a little nervous, but we’re not that nervous?”
49:02 - What do you think it would look like if the bond markets were to tell us this is a serious problem?
50:56 - Do you think the markets believe that we’ll grow our way out of this deficit economically?
51:36 - What do you take away from the market's recovery in the last month and a half?
55:58 - Is the market more resilient to crashes now than before?
58:17 - Why did Trump double the steel and aluminum tariffs and does it have anything to do with the TACO comments?
01:00:28 - Is there anything happening in the markets that people are not paying enough attention to?
01:03:08 - What’s the correlation between the U.S. and international markets and is our investment thesis for 2025 losing steam?
01:09:58 - Credits
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