Canada recently leaked a plan that might actually end Canada. Im not exaggerating. Canada’s upcoming tariff relief plan might actually cause Canada to fall. Not the tariff war. This plan. let me explain
So It appears that the United States is putting a 25% tariff on most canadian products potentially excluding oil. Because americans love their oil
Thats because 20% of all oil consumed in the united states actually comes from the oil sands in alberta. In fact almost two thirds of the midwestern united states crude oil and 90% of the rocky mountain states crude oil comes from alberta.
Meaning that if tariffs were to be placed on canadian oil, life in the north west of the US might get almost as expensive to live in as it is in Canada.
Regardless, whether these tariffs include oil or not, and whether they change in the coming months after they are implemented or not, it would still be devastating to the canadian economy.
A study from oxford showed that these tariffs would easily push canada into a recession. However, the irony is, by pretty much every metric except for the standard total gdp contraction, canada is already in a recession. ITs also a recession that the emperor of canada refuses to acknowledge, but thats besides the point.
in all honesty, these tariffs could cause an economic depression. Lets talk about the numbers.
ITs estimated that these tariffs alone, which is only 25% right now, could cause Canada’s GDP to fall by 2.5%. Now just for perspective, anytime gdp growth is negative for 6 months in a row, thats the traditional definition of a recession. And if you were to look around at a lot of the developed world right now, most economies are growing at less than 2.5%. MEaning that these tariffs on canada would single handedly catapult most countries into a recession if the impact were to be the same on any other developed nation.
Inflation is expected to surge to well over 7% within the first 6 months of these tariffs. And by inflation i mean the fake inflation that the government tracks. Because when housing prices increased by almost 60% over two years after the good old pandy of 2020, the government cares about that price increase, about the same as the price increase of a pack of pencils going from $5 to $6. Despite housing being disproportionately more impactful to the average canadian.
SO inflation will surge for canada, great, what else. Well, Unemployment is also expected to skyrocket from the tariffs. IT was estimated that canada unemployment would hit about 8% from the tariffs, however, this report is a little old and canadas economy has gotten worse since then, so expect canada unemployment to be nearing 9% or about the same level as it was during the 2009 financial crisis at its peak. So, im sure everything will be fine, right guys?
As a result of this, along with Canada’s economy and real gdp per capita compared to the usa, falling off a cliff, the canadian dollar has tanked to its lowest level since the tech bubble and war on terror in the early 2000s.
Anyways, the economic effects of these tariffs could be catastrophic. And Canada is looking at doing two things in response, 1 is counter tariffs, and 2 is a tariff relief plan.
So number 1, the counter tariffs. Now this is a hot topic for a lot of canadian citizens but not so much of a hot topic for politicians.
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